5th game v QPR almost seals the title

So, as we get to the "pointy end" of this 2017-2018 season, so it was 40 years ago. After being held by Leeds on Saturday, Forest played their penultimate home game of the season on a Tuesday night against (yet again) Queen's Park Rangers. After this, it was just one more home game and four more (tricky) away games to go.

In this shorter than usual blog I'll compare the cost of Manchester City's title winning team with Forests's and as we lined up against the Rs for the 5th time, compare how we did against all the teams in the first division that season.

The Cost of Building a Title-Winning Team

As I write this, Manchester City have just officially won the Premier League title. It was supposed to have happened a few days ago when they played their rivals Manchester United at home but things in football rarely seem to go to plan and they lost that match 2-3. Never mind, it seemed that City's title celebrations might have just have to be delayed for a week or two. Again, not so. Few could have predicted that bottom of the table West Brom would win at Old Trafford on Sunday but that's what happened. So, congratulations to Pep Guardiola and his obscenely expensive (the most expensive ever according to some accounts, apparently) assembled massive squad of some of the worlds best players. No-one, not even Jose Mourinho, could deny that they deserved to win the title. Right, Jose?

40 years ago, my team, Nottingham Forest, were on the verge of doing the same. Like City, it had looked like we were going to win the league for weeks, and had been top for months, even though we never quite dominated it like they have. We'd led the table since 4th October, City have lead it since 17th September. Forest had 58 points from 37 games after this match (78% of the maximum) Man City currently have 89%, correcting the system to be two points for a win. The gap would be slightly greater if you corrected Forest's record to 3 points for a win (74% v 88%)

Man City's current record v Forest's after the QPR game

Of course, we all know how "silly" the transfer fees have got in the past few years but if you compare how much Forest's squad of 17 players (16 if you just count league appearances) cost compared to Manchester City's 23 players who played in the Premier League, the difference is staggering.

Forest's championship winning squad of 17 included 7 who either came up through the youth scheme or were free transfers. The total cost of the squad was less than one million pounds - at £864,000 and 63% of that was spent on just three players: Peter Shilton, Kenny Burns and David Needham. Man City's "cheapest" player cost around 2.5 million.

Forest's Championship Winning Squad

Even accounting for inflation, Manchester City's squad cost over 200 times more than Forest's.

It costs a lot more to win the league today than 40 years ago

Times certainly have changed. I think for the worst.

QPR.... Déjà vu

We should have played the home fixture against QPR on Saturday, 18th March - my dad's 60th birthday - but of course there was that small matter of a Wembley League Cup Final at Liverpool that day which caused the match to get postponed and for me to forget all about my dad's birthday.

This was the fifth (not the fourth, as Shipley writes on p138 - sorry John!) time Forest played Queen's Park Rangers that season and, you know, with all due respect to the team from West London, we were a bit over playing them.

There is a certain accepted frequency to things in life. You know, you don't expect to see your parents every week once you've left home. Once a month was fine for me. You don't expect to go out to the pub every night - once every other night is fine. Watching more than three games of football a week gets a bit much and in any given season you shouldn't really be playing a given team more than three times. Twice is normal, one extra one for a cup game, fine... but FIVE times? That just gets tedious.

Even if the team were a great one to watch, you'd get a bit sick of them. The thought reminds me of that scene in Forrest Gump when he's regaling fellow passengers, waiting for their bus, with his heroic tales, complaining and rolling his eyes about having to go and see the President... again!

Besides, if we were getting tired of playing QPR, I imagine they were get much more tired of playing us. In our four previous games, we'd already beaten them twice and not lost. After this game, we'd have an even better record against them. By one measure, we'd have a better record against them than against anyone else.

To recap. Forest had won at Loftus Road in the league 2-0 in October with goals from Bowyer and Burns. Then we'd sneaked a draw there in the F.A. Cup 5th Round when Martin O'Neill equalised in the dying moments. The replay at Forest was also drawn 1-1 with a John Robertson penalty, before we'd finally put them out of the cup in a second replay, winning 3-1 with goals from Martin O'Neill and two from Tony Woodcock. All three cup ties were played in February.

Maybe I shouldn't be complaining. Maybe I should have been singing...

"Can we play you every week!?"

First Division teams according to how well Forest did against them

Despite it being the 5th time we'd played Rangers that season, (and the 3rd time at home) it was only the eighth time Forest had played QPR at home, ever, and we had a pretty good record against them. It's a record that continues to this day. QPR have never won at the City Ground.

Forest Player of the Season: Kenny Burns

Three weeks earlier, against Newcastle United, Forest fans had been asked to vote for their player of the season. And today the results were announced and the award handed to Kenny Burns.

I think we all voted for him. I was pleased that Martin O'Neill came second. My 1st and 2nd choices exactly. But with the benefit of hindsight... where was Robbo? Not quite appreciated as much as he should have been.

The Teams

Forest were unchanged whilst Rangers made two changes. Martyn Busby made way, presumably injured, for Brian Williams with a couple of players swapping around up front to accommodate the change.

Nottingham Forest

1 Peter Shilton, 2 Colin Barrett, 3 Frank Clark, 4 John McGovern, 5 Larry Lloyd, 6 Kenny Burns, 7 Martin O'Neill, 8 Archie Gemmill, 9 Peter Withe, 10 Ian Bowyer, 11 John Robertson.

Goals: John Robertson 29m (pen.).

Queens Park Rangers

1 Phil Parkes, 2 David Clement, 3 Ian Gillard, 4 John Hollins, 5 Ernie Howe, 6 Don Shanks, 7 Brian Williams, 8 Paul Goddard, 9 Paul McGee, 10 Stan Bowles, 11 Leighton James.

Attendance 30,339

The Game

I don't have very good memories of many games in this fantastic season but when your team played the same club three times in 50 days - all at home, all in night matches - 40 years ago, I think I should be forgiven for them all blurring into one.

So, again, I rely here on the words of John Shipley and the Robert Armstrong, the reporter for the Guardian.

There were a few exchanges at each end until, just before the half hour mark, Don Shanks floored Archie Gemmill in the box and the referee awarded a penalty - a decision the Guardian reporter thought lucky. John Robertson, as usual, slotted the ball in, fairly low and hard and well away from the goalkeeper. I wish I had stats on Robbo's penalty misses. I don't think there were many. This was his 11th league goal of the season, his sixth from the penalty spot. It was his 17th goal in all competitions - nine had been penalties.

Queen's Park Rangers, in the bottom three and fighting for their lives, fought back hard in the second half but Forest were deserved winners in the end.

The good news for Forest was that John McGovern seemed to be finally getting back to his earlier season form.

Other Games

The previous night Villa had beaten Newcastle to send them down with the Leicester.

But the joyful news for us was that Liverpool had somehow failed to beat Ipswich at Anfield. It could have been worse as they were losing 0-1 at half time.

So Forest went back to six points clear at the top and still had two games in hand.

Robbo joined Tony Woodcock as Forest's joint 2nd top league scorer.

This was Forest's seventh league double of the season.

Forest's unbeaten home record (all competitions) now stretched to 30 games.

Whilst their unbeaten record in the league now stood at 21 games - half a season.

Forest almost there, QPR struggle on, Newcastle Down

With Liverpool dropping a point at home to Ipswich, it meant that they had surrendered their position as Forest's closest challengers. They were now back, level with Everton, in the sense that the most points both the Merseyside clubs could possibly get now were the same - 58. As Forest had won, this was the number of points Forest now had.

For Forest to fail to win the league now would require them to lose their remaining five games and for either Everton to win their remaining three or Liverpool, their remaining five. Even that alone would might not be sufficient as Forest's goal difference, at +43, was 16 better than Everton's and 22 better than Liverpool's. Basically, Forest would have to lose all five games by a two goal margin, on average, and Everton win their remaining three by an average of two goals. Then, Everton could lift the title on goals scored.

Five games to go - one point needed

The one thing that was decided that week was the previous, Monday, night. Villa's 2-0 win at home to Newcastle sent them down to the second division along with Leicester City.

But the other relegation slot looked like being fought over to the end.

QPR, with four games left, could theoretically still get 37 points, but West Ham with just three games left, could only get 36 so Birmingham City were already safe.

So there were still seven teams involved in the relegation battle ...

... and there were some big four-pointers coming up. Chelsea had to face both Wolves and QPR.

All of these relegation worries were a million miles away from our minds though. A point at Highfield Road, Coventry next Saturday and glory would be ours!